Sobering statistics show customer demand for electricity continues to grow
The decision of seven regional utilities to construct Big Stone II - a 630-megawatt coal-fired electric power plant - is driven by a very simple fact: customer demand for electricity continues to grow. As the average American's standard of living improves, the average American's need for electricity grows.
In 1987, Congress passed the National Appliance Energy Conservation Act (NAECA), which required the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to set efficiency standards for a wide range of appliances, heating and cooling equipment, and lighting. With the implementation of NAECA and subsequent legislation, household appliances have become more energy efficient. But, the variety of home appliances - especially electronic devices - has skyrocketed. For example, in 1975, the average American household had 1.3 electronic devices. That figure has grown to 25 electronic devices today.
In addition, the average American is living in a larger home. In 1970, the average new home had 1,500 square feet. By 2005, the average new home had 2,300 square feet.
And, more American homes are air conditioned. In 1978, only 23 percent of American homes had central air conditioning. Today, nearly two-thirds have central air conditioning and about a quarter of the remainder have individual room units.
The DOE estimates average household energy use will grow by 1.7 percent annually between today and 2020. Energy use in the transportation, industrial and commercial sectors is forecast to grow as well.
All of this shows up in the demand forecasts for the seven Big Stone II participants. Between 1995 and 2005, their customer demand (including minimum generation load requirements) increased by some 1,600 megawatts, about 36 percent and by nearly seven million kilowatt hours, about 35 percent. This is the equivalent of three large power plants.
By 2020, demand needs are projected to grow an additional 2,350 megawatts, about 38 percent, and by nearly nine million kilowatt hours, about 33 percent. This is an annual growth rate of approximately two percent in spite of the utilities' aggressive energy conservation programs.
The growth in demand has caused the regional electric generation capacity reserve to steadily decline. The regional power pool projects that, without Big Stone II generation capacity, reserves will fall below the minimum level by 2011, a year before Big Stone II will go on-line.
These are sobering statistics and they vividly underscore the need for new, low energy cost generation capacity like Big Stone II.
Sincerely,
Mark Rolfes
Big Stone II Project Manager
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